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Modesto Crime Rate Report (California)

Modesto crime statistics report an overall downward trend in crime based on data from 26 years with violent crime increasing and property crime decreasing. Based on this trend, the crime rate in Modesto for 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025.

The city violent crime rate for Modesto in 2025 was higher than the national violent crime rate average by 77.7% and the city property crime rate in Modesto was higher than the national property crime rate average by 19.72%.

In 2025 the city violent crime rate in Modesto was higher than the violent crime rate in California by 34.54% and the city property crime rate in Modesto was higher than the property crime rate in California but only by 2.52%.

Property and Violent Crime
Modesto Property Crime vs. State and National Per Capita
Modesto Violent Crime vs. State and National Per Capita

Modesto Crime Statistics
Summary Report

2025 Crime (Actual Data)*Incidents
Aggravated Assault991
Arson93
Burglary417
Larceny and Theft3,247
Motor Vehicle Theft398
Murder and Manslaughter0
Rape103
Robbery193
Crime Rate (Total Incidents)5,054
Property Crime4,062
Violent Crime1,287
2026 Crime (Projected Data)*Incidents
Aggravated Assault945
Arson123
Burglary234
Larceny and Theft2,673
Motor Vehicle Theft348
Murder and Manslaughter2
Rape126
Robbery157
Crime Rate (Total Incidents)4,247
Property Crime3,255
Violent Crime1,230

Property and Violent Crime Totals

Modesto Property Crime

Modesto Violent Crime

Actual versus Projected Crime Totals

Modesto Crime 2025

Modesto Crime 2026

City versus State versus National Crime Comparison

Modesto Property Crime vs. State and National Comparison

Modesto Violent Crime vs. State and National Comparison
* The source of actual data on this Modesto, California crime rate report is the FBI Report of Offenses Known to Law Enforcement for the corresponding year or years. Arson numbers are reported inconsistently. Zero values may indicate the data was not available. The projected crime rate data displayed above was generated from the trends found in the years of actual reported crime data on file. In this case, the Modesto crime report data for 2026 was projected from 26 years of actual data. The last year of actual available crime data, as reported above, was 2025.

The FBI cautions the data users against comparing yearly statistical data solely on the basis of their population coverage. The comparisons made herein are thus, only meaningful upon further examination of all variables that affect crime in each reported city, state or other reported jurisdicition.



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